笔记:Thinking in Bets

  • Subtitle: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts
  • Author: Annie Duke
  • Date: 2022-11-23
  • Tag: #思维
  • Link:

Ch1 Life Is Poker Not Chess


Why did so many people so strongly believe that Pete Carroll got it so wrong?


our tendency to equate the quality of a decision to the quality of its outcome.

  • 「快」与「慢」的大脑。[[Thinking, Fast and Slow]] reflexive mind vs. deliberative mind

  • 冯诺依曼与博弈论“real games”。

  • 象棋与扑克的差异

Chess contains no hidden information and very little luck.

Poker is a game of incomplete information. It is a game of decision-making under conditions of uncertainty over time.

  • 象棋的结果与决策质量强相关,而扑克受运气影响更大。

But life is more like poker.

The quality of our lives is the sum of decision quality plus luck.

  • 不确定性会造成很大影响。[[The Black Swan]]

  • 信息的缺乏导致我们难以从经验中提升决策质量,更多的时候我们需要说的是「我不确定」。

Our lives are too short to collect enough data from our own experience to make it easy to dig down into decision quality from the small set of results we experienced.

When someone asks you about a coin they flipped four times, there is a correct answer: “I’m not sure.”

  • 接受无知,承认无知。

James Clerk Maxwell: “Thoroughly conscious ignorance is the prelude to every real advance in science.”

  • 承认不确定性,再接近事实。

A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge.

  • 优秀的牌手赞同不确定性(「the world being an uncertain and unpredictable place」),比国内切根据手中信息数量确定不同结果发生的概率,继而做出决策。不要做二元化的决策,考虑灰色地带。
  • 类似成长型思维。[[Mindset]]

But our goal should be to try.

  • 24%的胜算并不代表一定失败。
  • 重要的是对灰色区域的矫正和调整。

Making better decisions stops being about wrong or right but about calibration among all the shades of grey.

  • 敞开胸怀接受不确定性,重新定义错误。

Ch2 Wanna Bet?

  • 我们做出的选择往往伴随着代价,并且拒绝了其他选择潜在可能的发展。

a difference of opinion about alternatives, consequences, and probabilityies.

  • 育儿也是一种 bet。我们要使用有限的资源——时间、金钱、注意力,为孩子设计未来。
  • 大部分的博弈都是和自己进行的

we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.

Everything is a bet.

aspects of betting: choice, probability, risk, decision, belief.


  • 风险所在:
  • 适应不确定性。

When we decide, we are betting whatever we value (happiness, success, satisfaction, money, time, reputation, etc.) on one of a set of possible and uncertain futures. That is where the risk is.

  • 校准信念。
  • 我们容易轻信所听到的信息,而不对其真实性加以验证。
  • 观念的形成受到效率推动而非真实性。
  • 我们的信念(文化价值)影响我们处理新事物的方式。
  • 信念一旦形成就很难改变。寻找支撑新年的证据被称为「动机性推理(motivated reasoning)」。如此往复会形成恶性循环。
  • 「假新闻」的作用——更喜欢你所喜欢的。
  • Bet 源自 belief。
  • 聪明的人会加深认知偏见。
  • 「wanna bet?」是一种我们坦诚审视自己信念的思维方式。
  • 承认自己的局限性会更有说服力。信心低于100%说明我们考虑了多种因素,更加接近真相。

….there is always a degree of uncertainty, that ew are generally less sure than we thought we were, that practically nothing is back and white, 0% or 100%.

the smarter you are, the better you are at constructing a narrative that supports your beliefs, rationalizing and framing the data to fit your argument or point of view.

Fake news isn’t meant to change minds. … The potency of fake news is that it entrenches beliefs its intended audience already has, and then amplifies them.

part of the skill in life comes from learning to be a better belief calibrator, using experience and information to more objectively update our beliefs to more accurately represent the world.

Ch3 Bet to Learn: Fielding the Unfolding Future

  • 我们需要从经验中学习。
  • 需要将经验变为我们可以利用的经验。

Aldous Huxley recognized , “Experience is not what it happens to a man; it is what a man does with that happens to him.” … the ability to identify when the outcomes of our decisions have something to teach us and what that lesson might be.

  • 不确定性令真实原因难以被察觉。

When the future coughs on us, it is hard to tell why.

  • 识别一个赌注是运气在作用还是技能在作用,然而这并非易事。

Learning Loop

Belief -> Bet -> Outcome -> Luck ⬆️ | ->Skill ————————————————|

  • 健康零食 SnackWell’s Phenomenon:

people increasing their consumption of something that has less of a bad ingredient.


  • 从结果中学习是一种有害的过程。
  • Self-serving bias 赢了是实力,输了怪运气。
  • 减少 self-serving bias:
  • 更理性、更开放探索所有可能,而非那些令我们自我感觉良好的。
  • 减少 ego,别总立「人设」,死要面子。
  • accurate fielding and truthseeking

“We must believe in luck. For how else can we explain the success of those we don’t like.”—Jean Cocteau

instead of updating through credit and blame, we could get off on striving to be more objective and open-minded in assessing the influence of luck and skill on our outcomes.


It doesn’t just come at the cost of reaching our goals but also at the cost of compassion for others.

  • 通过尊重习惯回路重塑习惯。

”To change a habit, you must keep the old cue, and deliver the old reward, but insert a new routine.”

By shifting what it is that makes us feel good about ourselves, we can move toward a more rational fielding of outcomes and a more compassionate view of others. We can learn better and be more open-minded if we work toward a positive narrative driven by engagement in truthseeking and striving toward accuracy and objectivity: giving others credit when it's due, admitting when our decisions could have been better, and acknowledging that almost nothing is black and white.

  • 减少与他人的比较,「正念」。
  • 对赌中的换位思考,有点类似[[稻草人提案 (Straw Man Proposal)]]
  • 积少成多,对赌思维收效并不是立竿见影,但会像是复利一样对我们的长远生活产生巨大影响。

Ch4 The Buddy System

  • 讲真相/真理需要恰当的场合和方式。
  • 客观的真实会让我们不舒服但是长远看会更快乐、更成功。
  • 人们相信:在他人的帮助下我们可以过得更好。
  • Confirmatory thought vs. exploratory thought

“Whereas confirmatory thought involves a one-sided attempt to rationalize a particular point of view, exploratory thought involves evenhanded consideration of alternative points of view.”

Because I agreed to the group's rules of engagement, I had to learn to focus on the things I could control (my own decisions), let go of the things I couldn't (luck), and work to be able to accurately tell the difference between the two.

[[第五项修炼]] [[Mindset]] 提升团队决策质量: 2. Accountability:明确责任;

  1. Accuracy:准确性——奖励求真性、客观性和开放思维;
  • 肯定他人;承担错误;在正确结果中发现错误。
  • 沉迷于自己的观点会在赌局中付出代价。
  1. Openness:开放心态。[[《他者的消失》]]
  • 不同的意见可以帮助我们掌握真理。
  • 多样性——实现团队高效决策的基础

the norm is toward homogeneity; we’re all guilty of it; and we don’t even notice that we’re doing it.

  • 关注一些有不同立场的人。

Ch5 Dissent to Win


  • C(Communism):共有性(数据属于团体)。

“Secrecy is the antithesis of this norm; full and open communication its enactment.”

  • 「过度学习」

“a kind of utterhonesty- a kind of leaning over backwards. For example, if you're doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think might make it invalid-not only what you think is right about it: other causes that could possibly explain your results. ” Richard Feynman

  • 留心偷懒去解释的细节。

As a rule of thumb, if we have an urge to leave out a detail because it makes us uncomfortable or requires even more clarification to explain away, those are exactly the details we must share. The mere fact of our hesitation and discomfort is a signal that such information may be critical to providing a complete and balanced account.

  • Data sharing ——实现「准确性(accuracy)」。

  • 鼓励信息共享。

  • U(Universalism):普遍性(统一标准)。

  • 不因主观倾向轻易否定信息。

We don't process information independent of the way we wish the world to be.

  • 对不喜欢的信息保持「开放(opencess)」。

  • D(Disinterestedness):无私利性(警惕潜在冲突)。

  • 得知结果之前对结果进解构分析,保证真实性。

Simply put, the group is less likely to succumb to ideological conflicts of interest when they don't know what the interest is. That's MacCoun and Perlmutter's point.

  • Openness——唯一的学习方式。

  • O(Organized)S(Skepticism):有条理的怀疑性(鼓励参与和异议)。


  1. 表达「不确定」。
  2. 通过「认同」引导沟通。
  3. 通过「询问」确认临时共识。
  4. 关注「未来」。


  • 将孩子的注意力集中在他们可控的地方上。

My son was expert at fielding bad test scores as the teacher's fault. I had to be careful not to Letterman him. Instead, I would tell him, "It must be hard to have a teacher like that. Do you think there's anything you can do to improve your grade in the future?" That at once provided validation and led to productive discussions about subjects like developing strategies for preparng for future tests and setting up meetings with the teacher to figure out what the teacher was looking for in assignments. Meeting with the teacher also created a good impression that would likely be reflected in future grades. Ultimately, even with our own kids' decisions, rehashing outcomes can create defeniveness. The future, on the other hand, can always be better if we can get them to focus on things in their control.


Ch6 Adventures in Mental Time Travel

  • 站在不同时间、不同角度、不同位置看待同一件事物。
  • Temporal discounting: 牺牲未来自我满足当前需求。
  • 走出当下,考虑过去和未来的自己,最初长远有益的决策。

  • 决策之前后悔:

  • 影响我们决策质量;

  • 增加事后对自己的同情;

  • 对所有结果有准备;

  • 提前规划而不是被动响应。

  • 站在未来的角度看待当下的困难,影响远没有我们想象的那么大。 (某次考试失利,十年后以后回顾,对我们的生活会有很大影响象吗?)

  • 抽离出局部视角,用宏观视角看待事情,发现总体的趋势,而非沉浸在自利心理驱使下的一时得失。

  • Path dependent 路径依赖,最近发生的事情绪上影响我们较深。

  • Tilt:扑克行话——受到近期事件影响,夸大问题严重性,做出激烈响应,影响决策。 (类似系统失调)

"bad outcomes can have an impact on your emotions that compromise your decision-making going forward so that you make emotionally charged, irrational decisions that are likely to result in more bad outcomes that will then negatively impact your decision-making going forward and so on."

to favor our present-self at the expense of our future-self

  • Ulysses contract: past-us preventing present-us from doing something stupid.

  • 例子:定投养老金;脏话罐。

  • 抱怨只是在寻求同情,并无他用。

  • 弄清各种可能性,再行动。

But it turns out that better decision trees, more effective scenario plannings, results from working backward rather than forward.

  • 回溯问题。站在未来情景(负面)计划现在。

That changes our task from trying to be right every time, an impossible job, to navigating our way through the uncertainty by calibrating our beliefs to move toward, little by little, a more accurate and objective representation of the world.