- Subtitle: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts
- Author: Annie Duke
- Date: 2022-11-23
- Tag: #思维
Ch1 Life Is Poker Not Chess
Why did so many people so strongly believe that Pete Carroll got it so wrong?
our tendency to equate the quality of a decision to the quality of its outcome.
「快」与「慢」的大脑。[[Thinking, Fast and Slow]] reflexive mind vs. deliberative mind
Chess contains no hidden information and very little luck.
Poker is a game of incomplete information. It is a game of decision-making under conditions of uncertainty over time.
But life is more like poker.
The quality of our lives is the sum of decision quality plus luck.
不确定性会造成很大影响。[[The Black Swan]]
Our lives are too short to collect enough data from our own experience to make it easy to dig down into decision quality from the small set of results we experienced.
When someone asks you about a coin they flipped four times, there is a correct answer: “I’m not sure.”
James Clerk Maxwell: “Thoroughly conscious ignorance is the prelude to every real advance in science.”
A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge.
- 优秀的牌手赞同不确定性（「the world being an uncertain and unpredictable place」），比国内切根据手中信息数量确定不同结果发生的概率，继而做出决策。不要做二元化的决策，考虑灰色地带。
But our goal should be to try.
Making better decisions stops being about wrong or right but about calibration among all the shades of grey.
Ch2 Wanna Bet？
a difference of opinion about alternatives, consequences, and probabilityies.
- 育儿也是一种 bet。我们要使用有限的资源——时间、金钱、注意力，为孩子设计未来。
we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.
Everything is a bet.
aspects of betting: choice, probability, risk, decision, belief.
When we decide, we are betting whatever we value (happiness, success, satisfaction, money, time, reputation, etc.) on one of a set of possible and uncertain futures. That is where the risk is.
- 信念一旦形成就很难改变。寻找支撑新年的证据被称为「动机性推理（motivated reasoning）」。如此往复会形成恶性循环。
- Bet 源自 belief。
- 「wanna bet？」是一种我们坦诚审视自己信念的思维方式。
….there is always a degree of uncertainty, that ew are generally less sure than we thought we were, that practically nothing is back and white, 0% or 100%.
the smarter you are, the better you are at constructing a narrative that supports your beliefs, rationalizing and framing the data to fit your argument or point of view.
Fake news isn’t meant to change minds. … The potency of fake news is that it entrenches beliefs its intended audience already has, and then amplifies them.
part of the skill in life comes from learning to be a better belief calibrator, using experience and information to more objectively update our beliefs to more accurately represent the world.
Ch3 Bet to Learn: Fielding the Unfolding Future
Aldous Huxley recognized , “Experience is not what it happens to a man; it is what a man does with that happens to him.” … the ability to identify when the outcomes of our decisions have something to teach us and what that lesson might be.
When the future coughs on us, it is hard to tell why.
Belief -> Bet -> Outcome -> Luck ⬆️ | ->Skill ————————————————|
- 健康零食 SnackWell’s Phenomenon:
people increasing their consumption of something that has less of a bad ingredient.
- Self-serving bias 赢了是实力，输了怪运气。
- 减少 self-serving bias：
- 减少 ego，别总立「人设」，死要面子。
- accurate fielding and truthseeking
“We must believe in luck. For how else can we explain the success of those we don’t like.”—Jean Cocteau
instead of updating through credit and blame, we could get off on striving to be more objective and open-minded in assessing the influence of luck and skill on our outcomes.
It doesn’t just come at the cost of reaching our goals but also at the cost of compassion for others.
”To change a habit, you must keep the old cue, and deliver the old reward, but insert a new routine.”
By shifting what it is that makes us feel good about ourselves, we can move toward a more rational fielding of outcomes and a more compassionate view of others. We can learn better and be more open-minded if we work toward a positive narrative driven by engagement in truthseeking and striving toward accuracy and objectivity: giving others credit when it's due, admitting when our decisions could have been better, and acknowledging that almost nothing is black and white.
- 对赌中的换位思考，有点类似[[稻草人提案 (Straw Man Proposal)]]
Ch4 The Buddy System
- Confirmatory thought vs. exploratory thought
“Whereas confirmatory thought involves a one-sided attempt to rationalize a particular point of view, exploratory thought involves evenhanded consideration of alternative points of view.”
Because I agreed to the group's rules of engagement, I had to learn to focus on the things I could control (my own decisions), let go of the things I couldn't (luck), and work to be able to accurately tell the difference between the two.
[[第五项修炼]] [[Mindset]] 提升团队决策质量： 2. Accountability：明确责任；
the norm is toward homogeneity; we’re all guilty of it; and we don’t even notice that we’re doing it.
Ch5 Dissent to Win
“Secrecy is the antithesis of this norm; full and open communication its enactment.”
“a kind of utterhonesty- a kind of leaning over backwards. For example, if you're doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think might make it invalid-not only what you think is right about it: other causes that could possibly explain your results. ” Richard Feynman
As a rule of thumb, if we have an urge to leave out a detail because it makes us uncomfortable or requires even more clarification to explain away, those are exactly the details we must share. The mere fact of our hesitation and discomfort is a signal that such information may be critical to providing a complete and balanced account.
Data sharing ——实现「准确性（accuracy）」。
We don't process information independent of the way we wish the world to be.
Simply put, the group is less likely to succumb to ideological conflicts of interest when they don't know what the interest is. That's MacCoun and Perlmutter's point.
My son was expert at fielding bad test scores as the teacher's fault. I had to be careful not to Letterman him. Instead, I would tell him, "It must be hard to have a teacher like that. Do you think there's anything you can do to improve your grade in the future?" That at once provided validation and led to productive discussions about subjects like developing strategies for preparng for future tests and setting up meetings with the teacher to figure out what the teacher was looking for in assignments. Meeting with the teacher also created a good impression that would likely be reflected in future grades. Ultimately, even with our own kids' decisions, rehashing outcomes can create defeniveness. The future, on the other hand, can always be better if we can get them to focus on things in their control.
Ch6 Adventures in Mental Time Travel
- Temporal discounting: 牺牲未来自我满足当前需求。
Path dependent 路径依赖，最近发生的事情绪上影响我们较深。
"bad outcomes can have an impact on your emotions that compromise your decision-making going forward so that you make emotionally charged, irrational decisions that are likely to result in more bad outcomes that will then negatively impact your decision-making going forward and so on."
to favor our present-self at the expense of our future-self
Ulysses contract: past-us preventing present-us from doing something stupid.
But it turns out that better decision trees, more effective scenario plannings, results from working backward rather than forward.
That changes our task from trying to be right every time, an impossible job, to navigating our way through the uncertainty by calibrating our beliefs to move toward, little by little, a more accurate and objective representation of the world.